Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Snow, Ice, Listowel, Crashed Almeras, A Bought 1.9 Skoda Fabia, a Conversion to Hats...ALL Conspire to Delay Unrepentant Communist Postings....

Apologies to all the regular readers of Unrepentant Communist for an absence of posts since my wildly optimistic January posting, ah that wonderful space rocket and that progressive wish list...We embarked upon the hardest winter that we have seen in Ireland for at least 40 years and this had a huge impact upon me. I thoroughly enjoyed the sharpness of the air and the extremity of the weather. Something about those sub zero temperatures were much more ascetic than that kind of drab rainy nothingness we have been experiencing in recent years. We are all encouraged to put this down to 'global warming' but this wonderful hard old fashioned winter has hardened my scepticism about this whole global warming concept. In fact my scepticism about many 'Green' issues have been growing in direct proportion to the length of time that the utterly laughable Irish Green Party, led by the hapless careerist John Gormley, continues to prop up this horrendously incompetent Fianna Fail government. Basically Ireland is governed by a kleptocratic majority party acting in the interests of the very well feather bedded Irish rich, that bunch of Fianna Fáil gangsters, have been loyally supported through thin and thinner by a crowd of carrot crunchers, the 'Green Party', who have sold out any principles they once held for the taste of power and the tasty prospect of the lavish ministerial pensions dished out to all ex-ministers here, Martin Cullen the recently resigned Minister and TD for Waterford, will receive a €140,000 payoff and an annual ministerial pension of €110,000 per annum for life, thats going to buy him an awful lot of Ralgex for the old back pain.
Despite my liking of the winter weather I paid the price for the love affair, writing off the trusty Nissan Almera in a spectacular ice derived overturning in West Limerick. I was rescued by some local neighbours who were the epitome of good grace and hospitality. Martin, the man whose land I crashed onto, not only provided me with tea, but also pulled the car out of the field and kindly transported me back to my home about 17 miles away. Events like this confim in me my belief that fundamentally people are hard wired to be helpful and kind to each other, and that it is only the capitalist system that sustains and nurtures that selfish side we all possess.
The outcome of Nissan destruction day was
a) the purchase of a Skoda Fabia,which delightfully still retains something of the old Lada about it I think...ha ha... Whether that is true or not I must say that the 1.9 Skoda Fabia diesel is a better car than the Nissan 1.4 Almera, it is saving me A FORTUNE in running costs, I would estimate, a pproximately 35% cheaper per month.
b) a delayed reaction in terms of the fact, that although not physically damaged, I think that the whole incident shook me up FAR more than I first thought. Everything became a struggle and I think that I was suffering from a bit of shock. This culminated in a day or two of gloomy and negative thoughts a full week and a half after the accident.
c) A kind of scaling down of activities of all sorts and a period of just kind of hibernating, this involved sadly, a failure to post on the old 'Unrepentant Communist' blog. My belief systems were not altered in the slightest, just I could not summon up the energies to be posting as normal. I hummed the Soviet national anthem a few times in a desultory way and even tried to force motivation by a rousing chorus of Eisler and Brechts Einheitsfrontlied but the energy would not come...
d) last but not least I have discovered that if it is cold, minus 4 and 5 on a regular basis, then ones head gets cold, for this there is an old fashioned and rather pleasingly sartorially distinctive remedy, namely, the wearing of a hat. I find that wearing a hat is now as natural to me as putting on a coat. It is distinctive and above all it keeps your head warm. A further aspect of it, is that once you have grown used to wearing a hat, it is difficult to go out without one, without feeling somewhat exposed and naked...

I suppose the very fact that this post has appeared is self evidence of the fact that I am at last returning to my old form...I hope that we will share many more posts together in 2010, now that we are almost entering something akin to Spring, even though it is still regularly registering minus 4 every night by 8pm in South West Ireland....As for Global Warming???...My John Gormley!

Friday, January 1, 2010

A PROGESSIVE 2010...TO ALL OUR READERS.


Here at Unrepentant Communist we are extending to you our warmest New Year greetings, and we continue to hope for a Progressive 2010.... What could that mean...

1) The USA will resist the growing internal neo-con lobby within the military industrial complex for a conflict with Iran or Venezuela

2) The forces of progress will continue to hold firm and hopefully advance in Latin America

3) The onslaught against public and private sector wages here in the Republic of Ireland will be resisted by a united trade union and labour movement.

4) In the UK the coming onslaught against the Public sector will be stymied by a united resistance from the labour movement.

5) Some progress will be made to resolve the continued scandal of the occupation of the lands of the Palestinian people by the Zionist state.

6) Russia will maintain its autonomous foreign policy and hopefully progressive forces will advance in the former USSR in the wake of the deepening economic crisis.

7) In the wake of a deepening capitalist crisis, the alternative as proposed by socialists throughout the world will be increasingly heard as being relevant by new generations. The burgeoning anti-democratic power of the EU in our everyday lives will be tempered by resistance led by progressives such as Irish MEP Joe Higgins and others of a similar perceptive viewpoint.

8) Cuba will retain its socialist identity and resist pressure for 'reform' which is an ill disguised code for the dismantling of the socialist state. Many greedy eyes in the USA are eying Cuba with undisguised relish. The reversal of socialist power in Cuba would be a major set back

9) The USA and the UK and the other 'allied powers' will withdraw from Afghanistan and save the shedding of any more wasted young lives in a futile attempt to prop up the the thoroughly corrupt Karzai regime.

10) China will recognize that its 'great experiment' with capitalism has been an unmitigated disaster for its people, its environment, and the hopes of the people of the world for social and economic progress in China.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Me? A Leftist Authoritarian- Like it says on the tin.- My response to the endless celebrations of 20 years since the Iron curtain came down etc etc...

Some days you are just sitting there in the throes of a nasty flu, having just been informed that the ruling class in this country are cutting public sector wages again, that they are cutting payments to the blind, single mothers and the unemployed.

That the bankers and the various scumbags who run capitalism here and elsewhere are getting away with blue murder once again...all over the world...

And you know what you just don't feel like being democratic or 'right on' anymore. You just think of what really used to scare the capitalists of the world, what really used to get under their skin and make them wet their right wing pants.


Then you see a video like this and suddenly that flu doesnt seem so bad after all, you are empowered and you know what? I am going to be brutally honest here, I don't care if you don't like it and find it 'disturbing' or 'authoritarian' ....
This was the real deal guys, this was what the capitalists and imperialists were shit scared of ....and I would'nt have  the slightest problem at all about this particular boot being donned by the oppressed and workers of the world, who have been  getting it in the ass since the demise of the USSR.

That is my considered reaction to the endless round the clock 'celebrations' of the end of socialism which are being pumped out on the media all over the capitalist world day and night.

No wonder they are celebrating, it was the biggest let-off that the collective kleptocracy of global capitalism ever got, when they fooled the people of the socialist world into entering the hall of mirrors of capitalism.....Somehow, however, I feel certain that capitalism's reprieve is only in the long run scheme of things only temporary.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

THE RESTORATION OF CAPITALISM IS " NEITHER DEFINITE NOR IRREVERSIBLE...."


A powerful statement issued by the impressive Aleka Papariga, General Secretary of the CC of KKE ( Communist Party of Greece)

On November 9, 2009, in the rifle range of Kesariani, KKE honoured the communists and other militants who gave their life for the cause of Socialism, as a response to the anticommunist events that take place in Berlin.

With a simple event, filled with messages and symbolisms, KKE honoured in the rifle range of Kesariani the 200 communists and other militants who withstood the forces of fascism, recognizing in their example the heroism of all those who were not frightened, did not retreat, did not relent in view of the difficulties and the setbacks of the confrontation with imperialism.

The time and place of the event has its own symbolism and has been chosen as people’s response to the anticommunist events of lies and calumniation that take place these days on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the overthrow of the socialism in the German Democratic Republic.

The course of history cannot be stopped

Shortly afterwards, the General Secretary in her statement regarding the anticommunist events in Berlin noted:

We felt the need to be here today, in this sacred place for our people, where Greeks turned in to the Germans, unrepentant communists loyal to the struggle for the liberation of their homeland, knowing that they would be executed, or that they would be sent to the known camps in Germany. They preferred the unrepentant and fighting communists to be dead than alive struggling for freedom.

We felt the need to be here because today in Berlin the elite of the imperialists and their second class executives and allies, among whom the Greek prime minister, have met for the celebration of the Fall of the Wall.

In reality they are celebrating the capitalist restoration, the overthrow of socialism, because they believe that this overthrow is final and irreversible. However they understand that the course of history cannot be stopped and that sooner or later the timeliness of socialism will become reality. We do not forget the great contribution of socialism nor its achievements that benefited the humanity as a whole. No one can erase the fact that the overthrow of socialism made imperialism even more aggressive against peoples.

Freedom has class content

They celebrate and we understand why. They celebrate because freedom and democracy for them are consolidated in an exploitative class society; freedom and democracy for them means to violate people’s rights, plunder the working class, divide peoples, fragment and forcibly annex states. Freedom and democracy for them, are synonymous with the war of the capital, with the war of arms. All those who gathered in Berlin have forgotten their responsibilities and obligations regarding the wall raised by the Israelis in Palestine.

However, I would like to remind some facts in order to make it clear for the people and particularly the youth: Both West and East Berlin were in the centre of the German Democratic Republic. The erection of the Wall was imposed by imperialism when the NATO troops threatened to invade Berlin, especially the East part, in the territory of the German Democratic Republic. So I’m asking you: don’t the people, the workers’ power or any government have the right to respect their borders and erect a wall in their territories? For example, if there were 3 or 4 municipalities in Athens that belonged to the occupation army would people be free to come and go? At that time West Germany, with NATO and the Americans, was like an occupation army. On one hand it was responsible for the division of Germany and on the other it tried to forcibly annex it.

We will never abandon the struggle for Socialism

Once more we underline that we are on the side of socialism. We defend socialism we have known due to its great contribution to the people who experienced it and for the humanity as a whole and we have the courage and boldness to deepen and highlight the causes that led to the restoration of capitalism. That’s what we are fighting with all our strength and we won’t give up struggling for socialism. Socialism in Greece will include the contribution of socialism we have known and the lessons learned from the negative experience.

If those who gather today in Berlin think that the peoples will reconcile with the imperialist reality they are mistaken. Sooner or later people will rise even higher than in the 20th century.”

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Majority of Eastern Germans Believe that 'Life was better" in the German Democratic Republic.By Julia Bonstein


This article from Der Spiegel, no friend of socialism, existing , past , or future, makes fascinating reading and as someone who had some familiarity with some of the many positive aspects of life in the DDR, as well as the undoubted problems, I can only add that the sentiments being expressed come as little or no surprise to me personally ....


Glorification of the German Democratic Republic is on the rise two decades after the Berlin Wall fell. Young people and the better off are among those rebuffing criticism of East Germany as an "illegitimate state." In a new poll, more than half of former eastern Germans defend the GDR.
The life of Birger, a native of the state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania in northeastern Germany, could read as an all-German success story. The Berlin Wall came down when he was 10. After graduating from high school, he studied economics and business administration in Hamburg, lived in India and South Africa, and eventually got a job with a company in the western German city of Duisburg. Today Birger, 30, is planning a sailing trip in the Mediterranean. He isn't using his real name for this story, because he doesn't want it to be associated with the former East Germany, which he sees as "a label with negative connotations."
And yet Birger is sitting in a Hamburg cafe, defending the former communist country. "Most East German citizens had a nice life," he says. "I certainly don't think that it's better here." By "here," he means reunified Germany, which he subjects to questionable comparisons. "In the past there was the Stasi, and today (German Interior Minister Wolfgang) Schäuble -- or the GEZ (the fee collection center of Germany's public broadcasting institutions) -- are collecting information about us." In Birger's opinion, there is no fundamental difference between dictatorship and freedom. "The people who live on the poverty line today also lack the freedom to travel."
Birger is by no means an uneducated young man. He is aware of the spying and repression that went on in the former East Germany, and, as he says, it was "not a good thing that people couldn't leave the country and many were oppressed." He is no fan of what he characterizes as contemptible nostalgia for the former East Germany. "I haven't erected a shrine to Spreewald pickles in my house," he says, referring to a snack that was part of a the East German identity. Nevertheless, he is quick to argue with those who would criticize the place his parents called home: "You can't say that the GDR was an illegitimate state, and that everything is fine today."
As an apologist for the former East German dictatorship, the young Mecklenburg native shares a majority view of people from eastern Germany. Today, 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, 57 percent, or an absolute majority, of eastern Germans defend the former East Germany. "The GDR had more good sides than bad sides. There were some problems, but life was good there," say 49 percent of those polled. Eight percent of eastern Germans flatly oppose all criticism of their former home and agree with the statement: "The GDR had, for the most part, good sides. Life there was happier and better than in reunified Germany today."
These poll results, released last Friday in Berlin, reveal that glorification of the former East Germany has reached the center of society. Today, it is no longer merely the eternally nostalgic who mourn the loss of the GDR. "A new form of Ostalgie (nostalgia for the former GDR) has taken shape," says historian Stefan Wolle. "The yearning for the ideal world of the dictatorship goes well beyond former government officials." Even young people who had almost no experiences with the GDR are idealizing it today. "The value of their own history is at stake," says Wolle.
People are whitewashing the dictatorship, as if reproaching the state meant calling their own past into question. "Many eastern Germans perceive all criticism of the system as a personal attack," says political scientist Klaus Schroeder, 59, director of an institute at Berlin's Free University that studies the former communist state. He warns against efforts to downplay the SED dictatorship by young people whose knowledge about the GDR is derived mainly from family conversations, and not as much from what they have learned in school. "Not even half of young people in eastern Germany describe the GDR as a dictatorship, and a majority believe the Stasi was a normal intelligence service," Schroeder concluded in a 2008 study of school students. "These young people cannot, and in fact have no desire to, recognize the dark sides of the GDR."
"Driven Out of Paradise"
Schroeder has made enemies with statements like these. He received more than 4,000 letters, some of them furious, in reaction to reporting on his study. The 30-year-old Birger also sent an e-mail to Schroeder. The political scientist has now compiled a selection of typical letters to document the climate of opinion in which the GDR and unified Germany are discussed in eastern Germany. Some of the material gives a shocking insight into the thoughts of disappointed and angry citizens. "From today's perspective, I believe that we were driven out of paradise when the Wall came down," one person writes, and a 38-year-old man "thanks God" that he was able to experience living in the GDR, noting that it wasn't until after German reunification that he witnessed people who feared for their existence, beggars and homeless people.
Today's Germany is described as a "slave state" and a "dictatorship of capital," and some letter writers reject Germany for being, in their opinion, too capitalist or dictatorial, and certainly not democratic. Schroeder finds such statements alarming. "I am afraid that a majority of eastern Germans do not identify with the current sociopolitical system."
Many of the letter writers are either people who did not benefit from German reunification or those who prefer to live in the past. But they also include people like Thorsten Schön.
After 1989 Schön, a master craftsman from Stralsund, a city on the Baltic Sea, initially racked up one success after the next. Although he no longer owns the Porsche he bought after reunification, the lion skin rug he bought on a vacation trip to South Africa -- one of many overseas trips he has made in the past 20 years -- is still lying on his living room floor. "There's no doubt it: I've been fortunate," says the 51-year-old today. A major contract he scored during the period following reunification made it easier for Schön to start his own business. Today he has a clear view of the Strelasund sound from the window of his terraced house.
'People Lie and Cheat Everywhere Today'
Wall decorations from Bali decorate his living room, and a miniature version of the Statue of Liberty stands next to the DVD player. All the same, Schön sits on his sofa and rhapsodizes about the good old days in East Germany. "In the past, a campground was a place where people enjoyed their freedom together," he says. What he misses most today is "that feeling of companionship and solidarity." The economy of scarcity, complete with barter transactions, was "more like a hobby." Does he have a Stasi file? "I'm not interested in that," says Schön. "Besides, it would be too disappointing."
His verdict on the GDR is clear: "As far as I'm concerned, what we had in those days was less of a dictatorship than what we have today." He wants to see equal wages and equal pensions for residents of the former East Germany. And when Schön starts to complain about unified Germany, his voice contains an element of self-satisfaction. People lie and cheat everywhere today, he says, and today's injustices are simply perpetrated in a more cunning way than in the GDR, where starvation wages and slashed car tires were unheard of. Schön cannot offer any accounts of his own bad experiences in present-day Germany. "I'm better off today than I was before," he says, "but I am not more satisfied."
Schön's reasoning is less about cool logic than it is about settling scores. What makes him particularly dissatisfied is "the false picture of the East that the West is painting today." The GDR, he says, was "not an unjust state," but "my home, where my achievements were recognized." Schön doggedly repeats the story of how it took him years of hard work before starting his own business in 1989 -- before reunification, he is quick to add. "Those who worked hard were also able to do well for themselves in the GDR." This, he says, is one of the truths that are persistently denied on talk shows, when western Germans act "as if eastern Germans were all a little stupid and should still be falling to their knees today in gratitude for reunification." What exactly is there to celebrate, Schön asks himself?
"Rose-tinted memories are stronger than the statistics about people trying to escape and applications for exit visas, and even stronger than the files about killings at the Wall and unjust political sentences," says historian Wolle.
These are memories of people whose families were not persecuted and victimized in East Germany, of people like 30-year-old Birger, who says today: "If reunification hadn't happened, I would also have had a good life."
Life as a GDR Citizen
After completing his university degree, he says, he would undoubtedly have accepted a "management position in some business enterprise," perhaps not unlike his father, who was the chairman of a farmers' collective. "The GDR played no role in the life of a GDR citizen," Birger concludes. This view is shared by his friends, all of them college-educated children of the former East Germany who were born in 1978. "Reunification or not," the group of friends recently concluded, it really makes no difference to them. Without reunification, their travel destinations simply would have been Moscow and Prague, instead of London and Brussels. And the friend who is a government official in Mecklenburg today would probably have been a loyal party official in the GDR.
The young man expresses his views levelheadedly and with few words, although he looks slightly defiant at times, like when he says: "I know, what I'm telling you isn't all that interesting. The stories of victims are easier to tell."
Birger doesn't usually mention his origins. In Duisburg, where he works, hardly anyone knows that he is originally from East Germany. But on this afternoon, Birger is adamant about contradicting the "victors' writing of history." "In the public's perception, there are only victims and perpetrators. But the masses fall by the wayside."
This is someone who feels personally affected when Stasi terror and repression are mentioned. He is an academic who knows "that one cannot sanction the killings at the Berlin Wall." However, when it comes to the border guards' orders to shoot would-be escapees, he says: "If there is a big sign there, you shouldn't go there. It was completely negligent."
This brings up an old question once again: Did a real life exist in the midst of a sham? Downplaying the dictatorship is seen as the price people pay to preserve their self-respect. "People are defending their own lives," writes political scientist Schroeder, describing the tragedy of a divided country.
Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

THIS REWRITING OF HISTORY IS SPREADING EUROPE'S POISON by Seamus Milne


Blaming the USSR for the second world war is not only absurd – it boosts the heirs of the Nazis' wartime collaborators

Through decades of British commemorations and coverage of the second world war – from Dunkirk to D-day – there has never been any doubt about who started it. However dishonestly the story of 1939 has been abused to justify new wars against quite different kinds of enemies, the responsibility for the greatest conflagration in human history has always been laid at the door of Hitler and his genocidal Nazi regime.

That is until now. Fed by the revival of the nationalist right in eastern Europe and a creeping historical revisionism that tries to equate nazism and communism, some western historians and commentators have seized on the 70th anniversary of Hitler's invasion of Poland this month to claim the Soviet Union was equally to blame for the outbreak of war. Stalin was "Hitler's accomplice", the Economist insisted, after Russian and Polish politicians traded accusations over the events of the late 1930s.

In his introduction to this week's Guardian history of the war, the neoconservative historian Niall Ferguson declared that Stalin was "as much an aggressor as Hitler". Last month, the ostensibly more liberal Orlando Figes went further, insisting the Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact was "the licence for the Holocaust".

Given that the Soviet Union played the decisive military role in Hitler's defeat at the cost of 25 million dead, it's scarcely surprising that Russians are outraged by such accusations. When the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev last week denounced attempts to draw parallels between the role of the Nazis and the Soviet Union as a "cynical lie", he wasn't just speaking for his government, but the whole country – and a good deal of the rest of the world besides.

There's no doubt that the pact of August 1939 was a shocking act of realpolitik by the state that had led the campaign against fascism since before the Spanish civil war. You can argue about how Stalin used it to buy time, his delusions about delaying the Nazi onslaught, or whether the Soviet occupation of the mainly Ukrainian and Byelorussian parts of Poland was, as Churchill maintained at the time, "necessary for the safety of Russia against the Nazi menace".

But to claim that without the pact there would have been no war is simply absurd – and, in the words of the historian Mark Mazower, "too tainted by present day political concerns to be taken seriously". Hitler had given the order to attack and occupy Poland much earlier. As fellow historian Geoff Roberts puts it, the pact was an "instrument of defence, not aggression".

That was a good deal less true of the previous year's Munich agreement, in which British and French politicians dismembered Czechoslovakia at the Nazi dictator's pleasure. The one pact that could conceivably have prevented war, a collective security alliance with the Soviet Union, was in effect blocked by the appeaser Chamberlain and an authoritarian Polish government that refused to allow Soviet troops on Polish soil.

Poland had signed its own non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany and seized Czech territory, which puts last week's description by the Polish president Lech Kaczynski of a Soviet "stab in the back" in perspective. The case against the Anglo-French appeasers and the Polish colonels' regime over the failure to prevent war is a good deal stronger than against the Soviet Union, which perhaps helps to explain the enthusiasm for the new revisionism in both parts of the continent.

But across eastern Europe, the Baltic republics and the Ukraine, the drive to rewrite history is being used to relativise Nazi crimes and rehabilitate collaborators. At the official level, it has focused on a campaign to turn August 23 – the anniversary of the non-aggression pact – into a day of commemoration for the victims of communism and nazism.

In July that was backed by the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe, following a similar vote in the European parliament and a declaration signed by Vaclav Havel and others branding "communism and nazism as a common legacy" of Europe that should be jointly commemorated because of "substantial similarities".

That east Europeans should want to remember the deportations and killings of "class enemies" by the Soviet Union during and after the war is entirely understandable. So is their pressure on Russia to account, say, for the killing of Polish officers at Katyn – even if Soviet and Russian acknowledgment of Stalin's crimes already goes far beyond, for example, any such apologies by Britain or France for the crimes of colonialism.

But the pretence that Soviet repression reached anything like the scale or depths of Nazi savagery – or that the postwar "enslavement" of eastern Europe can be equated with wartime Nazi genocide – is a mendacity that tips towards Holocaust denial. It is certainly not a mistake that could have been made by the Auschwitz survivors liberated by the Red Army in 1945.

The real meaning of the attempt to equate Nazi genocide with Soviet repression is clearest in the Baltic republics, where collaboration with SS death squads and direct participation in the mass murder of Jews was at its most extreme, and politicians are at pains to turn perpetrators into victims. Veterans of the Latvian Legion of the Waffen-SS now parade through Riga, Vilnius's Museum of Genocide Victims barely mentions the 200,000 Lithuanian Jews murdered in the Holocaust and Estonian parliamentarians honour those who served the Third Reich as "fighters for independence".

Most repulsively of all, while rehabilitating convicted Nazi war criminals, the state prosecutor in Lithuania – a member of the EU and Nato – last year opened a war crimes investigation into four Lithuanian Jewish resistance veterans who fought with Soviet partisans: a case only abandoned for lack of evidence. As Efraim Zuroff, veteran Nazi hunter and director of the Simon Wiesenthal Centre, puts it: "People need to wake up to what is going on. This attempt to create a false symmetry between communism and the Nazi genocide is aimed at covering up these countries' participation in mass murder."

As the political heirs of the Nazis' collaborators in eastern Europe gain strength on the back of growing unemployment and poverty, and antisemitism and racist violence against Roma grow across the region, the current indulgence of historical falsehoods about the second world war can only spread this poison.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Double Dip Recession Very Likely


Much media blather about positive economic data from the USA and the prospects of 'green shoots' in the the EU, notably a recording of the fact that Germany and France had stopped shrinking in growth terms, ignores the fact that so much of the steam now apparently being picked up by the world economy is driven by entirely artificial 'monetary and fiscal easing'. This is in fact a posh way of describing the process of 'printing money'. The problem is, what will happen to this 'recovery' once it is no longer sustained by this artificial stimulus.. The stimuli will have to be curtailed, its just a matter of timing. Leave the money presses rolling for too long and you will certainly generate inflation, stop too early and the sickly weak recovery shoots will wither.
Two notable economists, Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and Professor Nouriel Roubini of the New York University, have alerted us to this prospect...







"Employment is still falling sharply in the US and elsewhere – in advanced economies, unemployment will be above 10 per cent by 2010. This is bad news for demand and bank losses, but also for workers’ skills, a key factor behind long-term labour productivity growth.

Second, this is a crisis of solvency, not just liquidity, but true deleveraging has not begun yet because the losses of financial institutions have been socialised and put on government balance sheets. This limits the ability of banks to lend, households to spend and companies to invest.

Third, in countries running current account deficits, consumers need to cut spending and save much more, yet debt-burdened consumers face a wealth shock from falling home prices and stock markets and shrinking incomes and employment.

Fourth, the financial system – despite the policy support – is still severely damaged. Most of the shadow banking system has disappeared, and traditional banks are saddled with trillions of dollars in expected losses on loans and securities while still being seriously undercapitalised.

Fifth, weak profitability – owing to high debts and default risks, low growth and persistent deflationary pressures on corporate margins – will constrain companies’ willingness to produce, hire workers and invest.

Sixth, the releveraging of the public sector through its build-up of large fiscal deficits risks crowding out a recovery in private sector spending. The effects of the policy stimulus, moreover, will fizzle out by early next year, requiring greater private demand to support continued growth.

Seventh, the reduction of global imbalances implies that the current account deficits of profligate economies, such as the US, will narrow the surpluses of countries that over-save (China and other emerging markets, Germany and Japan). But if domestic demand does not grow fast enough in surplus countries, this will lead to a weaker recovery in global growth.

There are also now two reasons why there is a rising risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession. For a start, there are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing: policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they take large fiscal deficits seriously and raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity soon, they would undermine recovery and tip the economy back into stag-deflation (recession and deflation).

But if they maintain large budget deficits, bond market vigilantes will punish policymakers. Then, inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond yields would rise and borrowing rates will go up sharply, leading to stagflation.

Another reason to fear a double-dip recession is that oil, energy and food prices are now rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by excessive liquidity chasing assets and by speculative demand. Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy, as it created negative terms of trade and a disposable income shock for oil importing economies. The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.
"














In addition , Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, has warned that the global economy could suffer a double dip, a pronounced rebound giving way to another slide.

'It is difficult to know whether or when there will be a W,' as such a course of events is often described, Stiglitz said.

Stiglitz, a former World Bank chief economist and an advisor to US former president Bill Clinton, said household balance sheets had been 'destroyed', which has meant that savings have gone up from zero to 7-9%.
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A rising savings rate cuts into consumer spending, which is responsible for roughly two thirds of US economic growth. An 'inventory adjustment' is under way, as companies build up their stocks, Stiglitz said.

But 'because of the uncertainties, people are not hiring, unemployment is very high and foreclosures are likely to remain high,' he said.

Stiglitz has been a sharp critic of policies advocated by the International Monetary Fund, contending that they aggravate crises and impose public hardship.